How Would You Beat Apple Vision Pro Using Jobs-to-be-Done?

Jay Haynes: 0:00

Welcome back to How would you beat where we discuss how you can use jobs to be done innovation methods to beat your competition. Remember to subscribe and like this podcast. In this episode, we will look at how you can beat apples vision Pro, let's use jobs to be done analysis to see if Apple's new product which they are describing as the most advanced personal electronic device ever, will be a success or not. A lot of the initial reviews are asking the question, what is it for? And this is where Jobs-to-be-Done can help, we can try and answer this question today. So Jared, I'll start with a prediction. And then we can discuss it. My prediction is that the apple vision will be the most successful product in history, it will generate more revenue, more profits, and more importantly, more customer satisfaction than any product humans have ever created. So that's a big claim, given the tone of Fidel, the father of the iPod, said with consumer apps and marketing for 330 $500. With two hour battery life, Apple has truly jumped the shark. That's what he said in a tweet Tuesday. So the big difference there, he thinks they've jumped the shark, I think it's gonna be the most successful product in history. So how do we answer this question? And what do you think?

Jared Ranere: 1:20

That's a great question. So I have a different point of view from Tony and you so far, my view is that if we could put it in a box and say you could only use it for certain jobs to be done, it would be a huge success on those jobs. But the way that it could creep in to harming other jobs I'm trying to get done in my life, makes me concerned that it will either not succeed in the way that Google Glass didn't succeed, or it will succeed and make my life a little bit worse in certain parts of my life. And so let me unpack a little bit of that. So first of all, what do we mean by a job to be done? Well, we've talked about that a lot in this podcast. It's a goal that you're trying to achieve in your life. And when you struggle with that job, you look for some new solution that you might want to purchase to help you get it done better. So Jay, what are some of the jobs that you think the vision Pro can be helpful on?

Jay Haynes: 2:22

Yeah, great. So let's, let's discuss that. And let's, let's also remind people that Steve Ballmer famously said, no one's going to pay $600 for a phone right when the iPhone launched. And what he didn't get there was that no one was buying a phone, you were buying a solution to lots of jobs that you need to get done. While mobile, it was a platform for getting jobs done by mobile. So let's talk about first, what is the vision Pro as a platform, it's virtual reality when you're fully immersed, but it's also augmented reality. And Apple is of course, calling the spatial computing. So what would you do with spatial computing? Well, let me just state a fundamental part of human life. We are 3d, we live in a 3d world, we are 3d people, the fact that we spend all this time using documents, and creating content and and absorbing information. And using that information to achieve goals in two dimensional space is very, very, very odd. It is something that didn't happen over the millions of years that we evolved, we just found ourselves needing to get these jobs done. Using tools that were in two dimensional space. So humans are 3d. So almost every job that you can get done in two dimensional space can be done better in three dimensional space. So let me let me just let's take a first example, very basic, that's been around since the success of the personal computer was just Office documents, right with the suite of PowerPoint presentations, you know, spreadsheets, and word processing. Those Those really were the killer apps that created the PC before the internet. And then of course, what happened with the internet, we now connected that information to people could now share that information. They could connect, they could collaborate in ways of course, we're having this conversation over the internet, right? So it enabled enable that type of collaboration in real time with humans, which is obviously why the internet was incredibly successful as well, that information can now flow around. But I think people are we're just so constrained to this two dimensional thinking. And the way that we get a job done is pull up a Word document and start typing something, or to take a spreadsheet and put in columns and rows of data and then try and use a pivot table to look at it. It's just every single thing you're trying to accomplish with those solutions is going to be done better and faster and more accurately in three dimensional space. Now, let me let me also start by think we've got to criticize Apple for some things they did on launch. I do, I do think they got some messaging off the mark. But and that that main messaging that they think they missed is, is showing how jobs can get done better in two dimensional space. And they did it there were some brilliant three dimensional spaces, sorry, three dimensional space. Yeah, there were some brief moments, they did it where they had, which is just extraordinary, where someone sends a, it's a design that's in three dimension four space, and it comes through your text message, and then it pops out in front of you in three dimensions, it's hard to demo that on a two dimensional screen, how extraordinary it's going to look. And that that really, that's an example of how you're going to get jobs done better. in three dimensional space. Even research, if you're, if you're researching a book and using text, you know, I have a application called Ulysses that I've been keeping information and building a thesis with it forever. And it's just, it's just hard to find the information and make all those connections be able to do that in three dimensional space. And of course, if you're designing a product, if you're building the building, if you're trying to do drug discovery, if you're learning how to do surgery, any sort of educational, I mean, the list goes on every single, almost every single job humans do is going to be done better in three dimensional space. So I think we could go through this, you know, in detail job by job. But what Apple was doing was establishing that this platform is is going to enable humans to do this stuff better. And they they chose to present it as in a way that I think is smart initially is that you're going to be so comfortable in this space, because all the apps you're currently using on your Mac and your iPhone and your iPad, are already in it. And I think people aren't fully grasping yet that it is a Mac, it is an iPhone, it is an iPad, those are those two dimensional systems are within the three dimensional space of vision OS. And, and I also say that people really need to experience this the views I have not downloaded yet, of course, but the reporters who have seen it, it is indistinguishable from reality, that that is so extraordinarily powerful that you are living and I've been using VR for a long time in. I've been thinking about VR, since the 80s. When I was in college, there was a big book that came out. And everybody you know, when I was in college, was very excited. This is going to be extraordinary, you know, and then and then of course, nothing happened with it for years because the technology wasn't there yet. I mean, effectively, this is all happening because of processing speed and camera technology and lenses and screens, etc. And the breakthroughs, the inventions, just the technology, technological inventions in this thing are just just extraordinary. And so that I think anybody who walks into an Apple Store puts this thing on is going to walk out just salivating and wanting to be in this space, because it is it's an enhancement to your existing space, of course, that that's just extraordinary to be able to have the amount of documents and applications and connection and information and explanation. It's just so much better when and this is what I think people can't grasp because we have things like the quest Pro and the meta trying to do this with these crazy cartoon avatars. And you know, VR today kind of looks cartoonish. It, I do spend time in VR, just as a hobby. But I don't think people have grasp and you really can't grasp it until you put the thing on. The fact that reporters were were fooled into thinking that they actually felt the butterfly land on their finger in 3d, that that this has been reported out that some some of the reporters who saw the demo there's a demo I'm sure people have read about where a butterfly comes to this virtual window and lands on your finger. First of all, the fact that that butterfly is an algorithm that knows where your finger is. And it's pretty amazing. It's pretty amazing. And John Gruber, a Daring Fireball had this amazing bubble where and there's also a dinosaur that comes through a window and it's so close to your face, and it's so realistic, you cannot tell if there's any pixels. It looks like a dinosaur It is literally indistinguishable from reality. You know, he said his lizard brain, of course, was terrified because it looked like a predator about to eat him. So I don't think people understand the quote idea this CES, which is going to be extraordinary.

Jared Ranere: 10:02

Yeah, I watched the promo, the promotional video that Apple put together. And for me, I haven't dabbled in VR very much I've played, I've used a couple of friends headsets to play some games, I found the experience disorienting, isolating, and honestly a little bit boring. And so I haven't spent much time in VR at all. And so I wasn't really comparing what Apple was promoting to other VR solutions I was looking at and thinking, What could this help me do in life, and I thought they did a nice job of demonstrating that. So there was a scene where in this video where they have somebody on a plane, who's trying to isolate themselves from the noise and the environment of a plane that there's a baby crying a few aisles behind them. And they're watching a movie on this enormous virtual screen, and feeling completely immersed in that. And I watched that and thought, Yes, I definitely want that that would be way better than my current experience of on a plane. And everybody I've talked to is like, oh, yeah, that's an incredible use case, like the job of like, get through a flight, you know, happily is very hard to do. And that's a good solution to it. And so I think they did a nice job of taking it away from like, the gaming space, and kind of what I would, you know, gaming is a huge market, but kind of niche for me, and putting it into the context of real life and things that you were trying to do before VR ever existed, and saying, here's a way to do that better.

Jay Haynes: 11:39

Yeah. And I think that's critical. I definitely agree with that. And I think having Bob Iger on on the stage was just a massive mistake. No one's going to pay $3,500 for 100 foot TV movie screen, you know, that that I think just enables naive critics to say, oh, my gosh, this is a $3,500 like movie projector. And in fact, one of the reviewers even said that in the demo session, they asked, they said, Well, how is a family going to watch a movie together on this and they were like, well, a family could buy for them. I mean, that is just that that's an unforced messaging error. No one's gonna pay, you know, 13 $14,000 for for their kids to watch, you know, Disney movies. For a family,

Jared Ranere: 12:24

even if they do, it can get in the way of getting that particular job done, right, like sitting down with your family, where you can see each other's faces and be in physical connection with each other while you experience entertainment. The job there is like, have a fulfilling moment and connect with your family. And these headsets can totally get in the way of that. I think it's, I don't want

Jay Haynes: 12:45

to disagree. I do disagree with that a little bit. I think eventually the price will come down, it'll be $1,000 product. And then you will start to have people like hang out and watch watch your movie together. You know, while I

Jared Ranere: 12:58

think regardless of the price, you still have that headset in your way, right? Like, like when I watch TV with my family. They the my children snuggle me, right? Yes, really, the reason I'm doing it is because their face can be next to mine. And we're in physical connection.

Jay Haynes: 13:12

This is my job. This is what I think this is where I think Apple's messaging missed the mark, I don't think people are going to watch TV. I think we are at the end of TV. Because I mean, certainly people are gonna watch TV. But I would be really surprised if Apple The reason Apple got into Apple TV and started making TV shows is because they're going to make three dimensional experiences. I mean, maybe you call it 3d TV. But I just think when humans are actually in a three dimensional space together with other humans, it just it changes entirely. Why I don't want to sit there. I mean, certainly there's still some great movies. And you know, they showed avatar, but it's in a rectangle box being 3d. That's just that's just the first version, the next version of Avatar, whatever you create the narrative, you are going to be in the three dimensional environment. It's like they showed with sports, you know, you're sitting at the NBA courtside in the three dimensional world that is just going to change the way people tell stories. We have been limited to the rules of filmmaking for so long, in fact, I think filmmaking just has jumped the shark. I mean, I went and saw one of those new Marvel movies, you know, yeah, with my kids, it's, it's just insane. The the experience is just and maybe I'm just obviously an old guy. But I was just it just to me seemed, of course, the the narrative of you know, humans, the villain and the hero and overcoming it. There's always that but I don't think people have fully grasped yet in the way that it would have been really hard to grasp. You know what was going to happen with the personal computer and the mobile phone, the societal impact and the way it's going to change what we create Eat and consume. So let's Yeah,

Jared Ranere: 15:03

I'm not suggesting that the job there is to watch TV actually. And I think that you might be right that like TV, as it stands today might go away, I'm suggesting that there's a job of connecting with family, and which is hard to do, and find quality time with them, it doesn't take a ton of effort. And if we do that through the headset, it could make that job a lot worse. And so we're going to end up an apple showed a few examples in their demo, where it was like you're with your family, and you're taking pictures through the headset, and where you could experience them in real life. And that's where I go, I want to put this thing in a box for only certain jobs around well work and content consumption, and I don't want it to get into my family life,

Jay Haynes: 15:46

I do agree that that I think that was a mistake of showing the, you know, the dad taking a 3d recording, because what I think's gonna happen is they're gonna put a 3d camera on your iPhone, you're just, it's, you know, the iPhone, the width of the iPhone is bigger than my, the distance between my pupils. So I think theoretically, you can build a 3d camera on the iPhone, so you're going to shoot the images there, you're going to experience them on, obviously, in the vision, because you can't, you can't you can't see it in 3d and iPhone. So I think that was that was a little bit of a mistake. And there was some criticism about that, yeah, like, you're gonna be staring your kids now I think, practically, you're gonna be sitting around the living room doing work and your three dimensional space. And, you know, you may, you may just be like, Oh, they're mites. kid is doing something, take a photo while you've got the thing on. And I do think the eyes are extraordinary, the ability to have someone's eyes facing out and the idea that you're seeing through it, so that you really are enhancing the world. So I agree that there are use cases like gaming, which is very, very interesting in a big market and full immersion. And you'll go into some crazy spaces and you know, play games, and simulations. But the the practicality of it, the reason it actually is going to be, I think, a very, very successful pro product, and people are forgetting they actually are targeting and initially at the pro market, people who make money with their computers, which is, of course, a lot of smart people. In fact, developers, Apple just announced they've been paid out a trillion dollars $1.1 trillion from the app stores, which which is just just extraordinary. I mean, that's a percentage of the, you know, a big percentage of the GDP $20 trillion in the US ever take. So the and that's because that is because applications are so useful. And the reason I think the vision, pro and just the vision platform is going to be so big is all of those jobs are done so much better in 3d, they are done more efficiently, they are done more accurately, they're done more collaboratively, just just think of anything that you're trying to accomplish. That requires information and collaboration. So you're designing a building, you're designing a product, you're designing software, right software is is three dimensions of data, we just like represent it on a scrolling piece of paper. But that's not the way software is architected, it's literally multi dimensional. And this is true of spreadsheets and data and business information, it's true of medical information, it's true of everything in the world is actually even more multi dimensional. We're just stuck trying to represent it on these two dimensional interfaces, occasionally with a three dimensional, you know, rendering in a two dimensional interface. And that is not the way humans work. And I

Jared Ranere: 18:49

think it's worth pausing on that for a second with a couple of examples. Because that's I think that's a not easily understood concepts out of the gate. So if you think about, I happen to have, you know, a HubSpot dashboard open over here on my other monitor, and it's full of bar charts and line charts, all representing two dimensions, you know, one might be revenue over time, or it might be qualified leads over time. And it's very, very hard to get a third dimension in that in that there's, you know, management consulting is widely considered to be using two by twos all over the place, right? It's always two dimensional. How do you get two dimensions represented in a visual, and in React, what you end up doing to understand something about your business is you look at five or six of those two dimensional charts. And if you can decrease the number of charts because you can add a third dimension to each of those charts, additional data to understand the relationships between various things that are happening in your business. For example, if you could look at leads and revenue over time on the same chart in way that was a little bit more advanced or do funnel analysis or anything that you want to understand that includes multiple data points in multiple dimensions, it can become easier if you're actually doing it in 3d.

Jay Haynes: 20:11

Yeah, yeah. And this is, this is why databases are so powerful. And obviously, you know, Oracle became, you know, one of the most valuable companies in history because of databases. And it's because we all have this enormous amount of data, that is helping us get things done, you know, whether it's your personal, professional, or medical lives, you know, the data is a crucial input into making decisions. And you're right, we just display it in these two dimensional pie charts, we put it on to an N page, PowerPoint presentations, that's just, that's really crazy way to represent it. But we don't have the choice we there is no way to show it in 3d. And it's, it's actually multi-dimensional. So let's just take you know, you have one lead, who's you're looking at in your marketing platform, but that knee lead has, you know, customer needs, they've got competitors, they've got to think they're using they may be considering you've got more information about them? How are they connected to you all that information, you're kind of switching back between these tabs to figure out, Okay, where is it and then you're looking for this information, you can't see a complete picture, and immediately navigate to the piece of information that you need, which you can obviously do just so much better in 3d, because you could have 14, demit, 14 different directions of data represented in three dimensional space. And, of course, you know, developers are going to have to build these applications. And that's what that's what Apple was really doing. They remember they launched this at a developer conference to get developers excited about it, to then have the the the launch six months from now, when they have a bunch of applications that developers have built that really show the power of just being in a three dimensional space. John Gruber even mentioned, which I thought was amazing, someone at Apple had been using the vision for a while testing it out. And they kind of represented their Mac desktop with a bunch of stuff in front of them. Like it's like they're still constrained like that, a few big monitors in front of them. And it really took the reconceptualize, wait a second, I don't have to be stuck in this two dimensional, I can have my documents all around me in 360 degrees. So it'll take time for us to adjust that, but then there will be no going back. This is what happened with the GY the graphical user interface, you know, everybody went from dos techspace, whether it was the apple two plus or DOS, everybody moved to G wise, there is no non G UI, operating system and maybe Linux, you know, but but from from successful, you know, popular use cases, there are no non G UI interfaces, right. And that's happened with multi touch and mobile, there are no successful non touch non multi touch interfaces, the IDO in the world for mobile, just because it is a better user experience, it saves you time with that interface. And that's what I think the vision Pro, we still haven't seen how extraordinarily powerful it's going to be when these applications are natively built for three dimensions, of course, and Apple even showed, hey, here's Microsoft Office in 3d. That not that I don't think is interesting. I mean, yes, I get that it's a platform, now it subsumes the Mac, you can, instead of using your Mac, you can use the application, you know, within vision OS, you don't need a Mac at all. It is a Mac, it's an m two chip that is in my current MacBook, it will run those applications and you know, iPad applications as well. So. And also, it just seems to be an extraordinary experience. You literally can look through it while you're wearing it and look at your phone to check something on your phone that yeah, that is truly extraordinary. I don't think people realize yet that what they're doing is that is a camera taking a picture of the incredibly high resolution of your phone and rendering it on a screen in 3d that you're looking at it. And it's indistinguishable from reality.

Jared Ranere: 24:22

Yeah. So I think we've established that the technological capabilities of this platform have yet to be fully realized. Yeah. And I think the thing that everybody's grappling with right now is, what's the business case for the way they came to market? Right. That's really the criticism that's being laid on them right now. Like, how can they expect to get this price point? With a with a two hour battery life where you like, yeah, there's all these consumption problems with it. Yeah. And I think it's worth spending a minute on that. Why? Because you and I talk about this every day, why? The market is much bigger than people realize. Then why the Steve Ballmer laughing at the price of the iPhone was a mistake. But let's pause on that for a second. Yeah. So So what are people paying for their? It's a new product category, right? So to say like, well, they should pay a comparable price to what they pay for quest is the typical move, right? What are the other VR headsets priced at? Well, we should probably price in the realm of that. And Apple threw that out the window, they went way beyond. So why is that a good move? And how are they able to do that?

Jay Haynes: 25:35

Yeah, ironically, 20, Fidel is an example we use all the time to describe this, you would think he would have grasped this, but obviously not. Because when nest launch, we use this example all the time, the thermostat market was, you know, 30 bucks for a thermostat that every hated and the HVAC contractor installed on your wall, and neski Mountain said, Well, we're gonna almost 10 times that we're gonna sell a thermostat for $250. Well, it's because no one's buying a thermostat, they're buying the getting the job done of achieving comfort in their home efficiently. And with cost savings. So that's why the nest was very, very successful. Obviously, the the same concept applies here, which is what, and this is where I think Apple did miss the messaging Mark, I think the product is absolutely extraordinary. But the messaging they missed was, they should have shown, here's what it takes for an architect to design and engineer a building. And you're using AutoCAD, you're in 2d, you meet with the client, you try and describe how this 2d image is going to work. And you can just then the demo writes itself, but instead right now, the, you're literally designing the whole thing in 3d, this two dimensional representation of an architectural space becomes 3d, it just lifts off the page. And if you want to move a wall, if you need to move an HVAC unit, if you have to reengineer the construction, because you change the windows, it's just literally like calculating that, you know, in real time. And that that in apply that to anything, right, they did show some of this stuff, obviously, like the heart learning, learning about, you know, a heart biology. I mean, unfortunately, students are gonna buy this initially. So it's not really,

Jared Ranere: 27:16

I mean, the main message I got was it was targeted at executives who travel a lot, right? So your daily show to an executive in a hotel room, managing teams of people, and they had this tiny laptop, but they needed to actually get real productivity. And so they blew up the vision Pro, yeah, multiple screens, their hotel room, and I was like, I could see an executive paying $3,500 For that charging to the business. That seems like a good segmentation to me. Yeah,

Jay Haynes: 27:43

no, no, absolutely. And clearly, like, it is way better experience to be on an airplane, you know, traveling for business, or it'd be in a hotel room trying to do business where you're in a different space. But I don't think that fully captures, I get why they're doing that. It's a very relatable problem. I'm in a horrible space that I don't want to be in for hours, I'm stuck on this plane or whatever. I'm,

Jared Ranere: 28:07

there's a, there's a segment that's likely to be an early adopter that has a willingness to pay to solve those use cases. Yeah, my my father's and architects have just that anecdotal experience, they tend to be pretty late adopters and not have a huge willingness to pay, because they're not super profitable. So, you know, when you think about, like, who's going to buy out of the gate? I like that traveling executive segment.

Jay Haynes: 28:31

Yeah, no, I agree with that. That's fine. But long term, the reason I think it's going to be the most profitable product in history is I think you should short the airline stocks and commercial real estate. Because the type of travel that's very profitable airlines, also, its course business travel, where someone just has to buy a ticket, it's paid for by their company, it's full fare, high margin, that just having to travel around to do already, you saw this post COVID and resume. And of course, you know, we've talked about this with Zoom, you know, forever. Even before COVID, we said the airlines should buy zoom. And now, of course, zooms, you know, market value is more than the airline's, right, because it is way more effective. And it's faster and more accurate to do a zoom call than it is to you know, put a team on a plane and have them all travel around, you know, meet. So, and I think that'll happen. So I think, yes, the experience of being in a horrible plane where you're, you know, you're just sitting there for hours, going to some, you know, work meeting is a use case, but I think the more powerful use case is you don't have to take that flight. That the being in the space in 3d with people that you're trying to collaborate with, means you don't have to take that that flight and you don't have to have a desk. You don't have to sit at an office in this way. That constrains you to this two dimensional space looking at a two dimensional screen I have to go back to I don't think people it's, and this is I think, generally, my criticism a lot of a lot of business thinking is it doesn't factor in evolution, the state that we're in today where we just look at the screens, and you know, we're staring at phones, which obviously has, like, you know, there's positives and negatives. This is we stare at all these machines, because that's where the money is, capital has made us sit in front of a desk, you know, chained to a computer typing stuff in, and our phones because that's where the money is. And I get that we but it is a very, very odd thing for humans. If you were an alien species, you said, oh, there's this species, and they roam around the planet, they have these legs and these arms, and he's opposable thumbs, and they can climb trees, and they're, you know, moving around all the time in these groups, and then wait a second, they all now just sit in front of these computer screens all day long. You would think that what happened to these species, it's almost like, you know, we like the chickens, we put them in these factory farms. Now chicken just sits in a cage until it you know, yeah, eggs and dies, and eat the chicken is absolutely horrible life. In some ways, this is true of humans, we're, we're not moving around in three dimensional space, we're not collaborating in three dimensional space, we're all stuck to his computer screens, it this is going to be so liberating, it will get jobs done better. But even just as an interface level as a way to exist throughout the work day, I am going to switch 100% sitting in front of my Mac, to sitting in the vision quest and the two hour battery life, I think massively misses the point. First of all, this is the most awful thing in the world, you want, you want four hours have a bigger battery, that this is not an issue, the fact that it can be battery operated at all, is an extraordinary milestone. And you've practically, you're going to be in this space sitting somewhere, you don't have to be at a desk, right, you'd literally be anywhere, and you're probably going to be near an outlet. And since you you're going to be indoors, most likely. And so you just plug the thing in, it's really simple. And then it because it's two hours, that gives you two hours to walk around in any space, to to experience the space you're in with all of the documents, the information, the collaboration, whatever you're trying to do, you can then liberate yourself stand up and walk around. I mean, you know, everybody's touting how great it is to have a stand up desk, you should not have to stand up, you should be able to walk around, it's to be able to walk around, you're the OS, the interface, the environment in order to get jobs done, and to look at data to analyze information to make decisions to learn new skills. I mean, we haven't really touched on education yet. But the skills you're going to be able to learn and the speed at which you're going to be able to absorb information. I mean, just think about learning geometry. We all stare at geometry textbooks, now geometry, iPad apps, it's going to be extraordinary to experience the geometry, physics, biology, chemistry, in three dimensions computer programming is now Yeah,

Jared Ranere: 33:16

well, I'm gonna say that I think the other way to read the story, they were telling what the executive on the plane and then in a hotel room and still getting things done was not necessarily that they were taking a drudgery trip to a meeting, but maybe they were going to Fiji because they just want to hang out there. And they didn't need their giant workstation with them. They could still be productive without bringing four monitors, you know, and all their dashboards and doing all that stuff. So I think that liberation story is part of the messaging. Yeah. And I agree about the battery issue. I think that's a solvable problem. That's like saying, Tesla's not going to be valuable because they couldn't sort out their manufacturing straight out of the gate at volume, right. But it misses the point of the platform long term. Yeah. The thing that I, that gives me a hesitation that this is going to be a huge home run and take over everything, or it might even do that, and I might still be upset is the potential isolation factor. And I like that they saw that as a potential issue and created the screen the OLED on the outside of the care of the device, so that you can see somebody's quote, unquote, face. It's not actually their face. It's a it's a rendering of their face on a screen. So you know, they have that in mind that they're trying to connect you through this device. And I hope they keep pushing it to the point where it's like the device basically disappears to some degree. Because I do think the isolation and loneliness issues we're facing in society right now are pretty big. And if everybody were to buy this at some point and try to use it all the time, we could end up with a lot of issues. there.

Jay Haynes: 35:00

Yeah, well, that's such a great topic to discuss. I do agree. I mean, obviously, it'll hopefully shrink over time. Right where it looks like a pair of glasses more than goggles, I mean, that that might be a ways off, I mean, just the computing power, you'd have to reduce the chip size by an enormous amount. But maybe, maybe they moved the chip to the, you know, battery pack or something like that. So I think there, there are ways to do it. I do think, if you look today, I mean, just watching, you know, my kids and their kids, the number of times they're hanging out together, staring at their phones, they are together, technically, physically, but they are staring at their phone, it's horrible, totally is horrible. And we've kept them off social networks, just given all the damage that social networks can do. And I've gotten off social networks, I use them for business, but even then, it's hard to be on Twitter, I tried to filter it to be, you know, business oriented stuff. It's just horrible. There's so much horrible stuff on it. And of course, you can, you know, look at Twitter, and Tiktok, and YouTube, in your three dimensional space. And so it could be it could be a problem. And of course, humans have figured out a way to be horrible in whatever medium ever. So, but I'm really hopeful. I'm hopeful that, that being in a three dimensional space connected with someone, it's really hard to be with another human, and just be really confrontational. Now, it happens all the time. Of course, you know, I mean, we have a democracy, there's freedom of speech, people, two sides show up in real life and get really mad, you know, January 6 lap and there's road rage, people just get upset and mad and angry all the time. But I think that the, the, the isolation factor, and it's really interesting what they're doing with personas, you know, avatars, whatever you want to call them, that kind of 3d rendering of yourself when you're, you're two people with a vision Pro can see each other rendered in 3d, which is pretty interesting. It seems reviews are like it's a little it's definitely not as bad as met, as you know.

Jared Ranere: 37:13

Yeah. It's one of those things that you could imagine getting there, though. Yeah. And for the purposes of a video conference being better than what we do today. Yeah,

Jay Haynes: 37:21

yeah, I think it could get better really quick. And of course, people forgot the M. Series chip is just extraordinary. It's getting so fast. So worth the m two word M five, it's going to be mind boggling boggling how fast Yeah. And also the fact that they built another chip called the r1. I know, this is more of a technical, you know, implementations, but the it gets the job done. Right. It those things make it indistinguishable from reality, which I still don't think people have fully grasped like what it means to be in a three dimensional space, that that looks like the space you're in, but it's not real, it is an image of the space that you're in. It's so extraordinary. So that isolation, because because people I think it'd be better to collaborate with people. And even just to hang out, I think you will you the, the ability to immerse yourself by moving the crown in, you know, a lake, a mountainside Lake, is, you know, it's just extraordinary to transportation, transport yourself, you know, Star Trek style into another environment with another person. Right? That I think is you'll be on your own initially, though you have friends who have it, and again, the price is going to come down, it's going to be business use case initially, and wealthy people who buy it, because it's interesting, but the big market is going to be down when it's$1,000. And it will come down in price as they scale it and, you know, get to manufacturing volumes. It and I just think we what will happen in those three dimensional spaces will be incredible collaboration. And that will hopefully reverse you know, what I do think is a very, very bad trend with our current devices of creating division and animosity. Now, there are also real problems that we need to solve, you know, half the country has foreigner dollars, their name, so they're, they're immediately not in this market. Right. So that's, that's another issue. But but brings up something that I think is very interesting, as well as what are the new applications that get jobs done better, that create more employment and more opportunity for more developers and companies and employees to make more money in a three dimensional space? And that that is that is really extraordinarily interesting to think about. Because already of course, you know, they pay About$1.1 trillion to app developers. But you know, that's a lot of people being employed and making money. And one thing I think they missed is the the, the messaging should have been more profits for more people. Now, they wouldn't say it that way. But they should have done a better job in the messaging of showing how working and collaborating in this three dimensional space is going, people are going to be willing to pay for solutions that get jobs done better in this platform natively, not just porting apps from the two dimensional world. And sure, it's a Mac in 3d with it's a giant monitor with lots of screens. But that doesn't capture the the power of operating in a three dimensional space.

Jared Ranere: 40:50

I think that's a great point and, and really helpful lens through which to think about your life as a developer on this platform. So you know, I have I've now lived through working in tech, when the iPhone launched and when the Apple Watch launched. And so these are the new platforms where as a developer, you think I better build something for that. And the first move for almost everybody is to say, how do I recreate my existing functionality in this new interface, this new in this new interaction paradigm? And I think that is the wrong question. I think the right question is, what part of the job that I'm trying to get done with my product is really difficult because of the existing platform. So you know, I'm HubSpot. And I'm trying to help people generate leads what's still really hard because of desktop interfaces and mobile phone interfaces, or, you know, I'm Adobe or, and I'm trying to help people edit, edit video, like what is still is really hard because of the platform that I'm introducing my customers to do that on, and how might those unmet needs be solved extraordinarily differently in this new platform, and build those features first, and then build on all the other stuff that you know you can do today relatively easily in the existing platform?

Jay Haynes: 42:16

Yeah, the breakthroughs I definitely agree. And I think a good example of where Apple missed the mark in the messaging was the surfboard designer, the dad, they had this infomercial, they played and the dad you know, like hanging out with kids, but he's, he's clearly a surfboard designer. So he's in the Apple vision Pro. And he's designing a surfboard, in vision Pro, using a two dimensional application. He's literally looking at two dimensional sketches of a surfboard, which is a 3d product in a 3d environment, that's a miss that what they should have shown is he pulls up the file. It's it's a two dimensional representation of the surfboard. And then he pulls the surfboard out into three dimensional space in 3d, and puts his kid on it, you know, he didn't have the VisionPRO on but you know, the idea is that then, okay, I need to design this surfboard. What is the texture look like? What is it made of fiberglass, you know, if I change this dimension, is it structurally going to work, and he literally could be doing that all in 3d with his hands. Right? That that's so extraordinary, as a as a as a as literally, meaning it leaps off the page into three dimensional space. And they did show a little bit of this, but they and I get that they're trying to sell the idea of the platform to developers really, at the this was targeted at developers as targeted the world. So we all see what this is, but they really want the developers to make these applications, you know, come to life, as you would say, yeah. And I think they missed the mark a little bit on that, because it just made naive critics be able to say like, Oh, my God, you know, who's gonna, who's gonna, you know, watch the right foot?

Jared Ranere: 43:58

Right? I think that the, the physical object design is a great example of a job that's, you could imagine building something different for the developer. I think another example is retail, right? If I'm, if I'm a developer, or product manager, at a retail company that sells a lot of clothing, I'm immediately thinking like, How can I build something on that platform that helps people try things on and get a real sense of fit, because that is the hardest thing to do through E commerce right now. returns are at an all time high and causing, you know, major issues and profitability. So how could you enable somebody to get a true sense of fit? And now it's not going to be that your entire market is going to have this device tomorrow. And so it's not going to jack up sales immediately. Yeah, but you want to put yourself in that position where you're helping with key segments. So if you're especially if you're a high end retailer selling to these executives that Apple's marketing to right now, how do you help those people try things on and see if something's fits in that 3d space? Oh,

Jay Haynes: 45:00

yeah, yeah. So so let me I just thought of something that I think is a good demonstration of the power of this, when, obviously when it gets adopted, and you can build things for it. So let's just take a book, right? We're so used to book books, obviously been around since the Gutenberg Printing Press, and you know, books are essential to our society, its library has revealed a huge debate about what books you're allowed to read, you know, today, unfortunately, and just foundational part of what it means to be human books knowledge. So I've been reading my my cousin and author Steven Johnson, who's been on our podcast, he has great books for young readers, one is extra life, how we got extra life, and then How We Got to Now both incredible books highly recommend them. So I'm reading these books to my children at night. Fascinating stuff. So we just did a chapter on glass. And he's talking about how extraordinary is that the history of glass and is describing an Observatory in Hawaii that looks out into space, and it's a system of mirrors, just totally incredible. And he's an extraordinary author, I love reading to them so fine. But if you were to create that book today, you what you would do is you would be reading about the text, and then you would immediately leap off into actually experiencing how this thing works, to look out into space, and then you would travel to the planet that you're looking at, and describe what it's like to look at Jupiter or Mars, or a black hole. Right. And, and, and this is true, you know, even in actual life, he had these amazing stories about the guy who who contributed enormous amounts to car safety, because he put himself in this crazy jet sled that went 650 miles an hour and stopped and a second and a half, it was insane that he survived. But you could imagine, okay, you get in the sled, do you want to see what that feels like to go 650 miles and stop in a second. Now, thankfully, you know, it's physically not going to injure you. But you that experience, it's human, we're describing these things in two dimensions, because we don't have a way to experience them. In three dimensions, the best we had was movies, you could take a movie of it or a photograph, right? Moving from the photograph to the movie to the three dimensional element. And this is also what I think's extraordinary. Apple's creating a new type of file system. For storing this, I think this is accurate of storing this three dimensional information. They even created custom cameras to make these environments because you have to go out with some sort of 3d camera and capture it, you can't just like laser, scan it and try and render it, they're actually capturing the three dimensional video experience. And I'll make a prediction. Apple is doing that for every single square inch of the planet, or at least, you know, major cities and major roads and state parks. Tim Cook has state parks in his Twitter bio. So you know, he clearly loves them. So I wouldn't be surprised if they launch with major state parks rendered in 3d throughout the entire state park that you can, you know, you can visit in the Apple vision Pro, just, you know, instantaneously you're at Yellowstone, and you're just experienced in, in absolutely stunning realism. And then I bet on top of that, that file type there then going to enable developers to build something in Yellowstone. So if you wanted to build a game, or if you wanted to build, you know, an environment or you wanted to have people interact with Yellowstone and characters in Yellowstone in this, you know, augmented and virtual reality together, it'll be an incredibly new file type. So how do you edit that? If you're a developer, right? How do you edit these 3d files, and make these 3d experiences in the same way that we needed to edit, you know, music and television, we need to figure out all those tools when those mediums came about this three dimensional medium is going to need those types of tools. And I thought that was funny too, they cute they show like Final Cut Pro and logic, you know, their video editing and music editing apps in two dimensions in the Apple vision Pro, but we're stuck with those metaphors, literally because of film and tape in analog film and tape we still have this vision of music that you know, it's this two dimensional thing that's just audio over time. But music is three dimensions and so so is video because you've got all these different you know elements that are going on for example, in music you have like compression and equalization and music. And audio actually is over time its frequency over time and amplitude. So it is a three dimensional thing that we're experienced. Obviously music travels through the the air gets to your ears through three dimensions, so we're stuck we can't even get out of these old metaphors. Even Apple didn't show like a three dimensional version of logic and Final Cut Pro because it I get why they want to say it's seamless and Now you're working in this environment, you're still using the tools that you know and love and are using. But the next generation, the big opportunity is to stop restricting ourselves to these two dimensional environments, because those are artificial constraints. And they're not humans. Humans are 3d.

Jared Ranere: 50:16

Right, right. Yeah, it's interesting. You know, I have, for all the ways in which the platforms are better than what we're tethered to today, there are things like, Oh, you get a perfect rendering of Yellowstone and the day my kids say, we don't have to ever go to Yellowstone, because I've got this perfect rendering in my headset, is the day I'm going to be really sad. So there's like, I've had this like, incredible mix of emotions of like excitement about how my work day might be better, and fear about how people won't need to go into physical environments anymore. And that, and we will miss that. And it's hard to articulate what the missing piece will be. But I have a feeling if we don't get out into nature a lot and experience these things. Because the substitutes seem to be as good. And we don't know how good it could be. We'll miss something important. But

Jay Haynes: 51:13

I'm not worried about that. I really am not concerned about that, given given the concern. I have today that people are staring at their phones all day long and getting angry and suicidal. And, you know, yeah, literally, suicide rates are up for teenage girls to an alarming amount I, as the father of teenage girls, I can't tell you how concerning that is. So maybe, maybe they they then switch from being in a phone to being their vision pros, and it becomes all terrible, and they're just, you know, it's even worse. Right? I'm hopeful. Because I do think it's so much more human. It's it really is human to be in these three dimensional spaces. And sure, you know, you take your kids to Yellowstone, but also remember, most people cannot travel to most places in the world. And if most people in the world traveled to most places in the world, we haven't figured out how to solve that carbon problem. We we really want people taking fewer flights flights are we still not figured out how that's the one area that we do not have the technology yet to reduce carbon and you get on a plane, it's it's incredibly bad for the planet. I mean, planes are obviously I'm a pilot, I love flying. Now I do fly gliders which don't have an engine, but it's, it's it's flying is it, we cannot keep increasing the amount that people are flying. So it doesn't mean you shouldn't go visit places. But it's also extraordinary. I mean, that's, that's actually a great example, one of the jobs is going to get done is visit a space, a place that you've never been to that you wanted to visit. Well, what's the cost of going from California to France? I mean, most California can't do that flight. And at any price, it's really expensive. So but you know, you could certainly do it in a vision Pro and go visit Paris and experience what it's like to be in, in, in, in Paris. I mean, yeah, it's just a, it's such an enhancement to human experience, to be able to be in three dimensional spaces that are indistinguishable from reality. I don't think I'm gonna keep saying this again. And again, I don't think people can really judge the vision pro until they've walked into an Apple Store and put it on and seen it in action. Yeah,

Jared Ranere: 53:40

it's interesting to think about, you know, if I, if I couldn't travel, to go experience something, before I had social media and all these things, I'd go over to a friend's house or meet in a park or spend time with people in physical space. And there are a lot of studies out recently, where people said, That's incredibly healthy. And people are doing it less and less today. And so if we're in making these incredible experiences and a headset, so powerful, will that trend continue? is kind of a question, will people spend even more time alone in their headsets, or just virtually experiencing things together? And what is the effect of that?

Jay Haynes: 54:24

Well, let me I've, so I've been thinking about this nonstop. I mean, I spent a lot of time in VR already just as one of my hobbies. But I've been thinking about VR for a long time. And, and obviously, since Monday's launch, I've been thinking about it nonstop is to figure out what jobs is gonna get done. What are the kind of market opportunities from it obviously, just whether or not we'll be successful, and what am I going to do with it? So let me give you an example. I am going to spend every minute that I have to work outside. I'm going to go into that full immersion space cuz I sit in my office, I look at a Mac, and you know, my phone occasionally all day long and I want to do calls, you know, like, I have a pretty standard knowledge worker job sitting in front of my computer all day in an office, you know, when I have a window, which is nice, a lot of people don't have windows, right? Meaning an actual physical window they look out into. So that's going to change immediately. I'm going to spend I love being outside, I think it's human. Obviously, there's lots of studies that like we need to get outside. And, and that's just hard to do. You can't take your Mac for all sorts of reasons. It's, you know, sitting in the sun is bad, you know?

Jared Ranere: 55:35

Yeah, I tried to do with by air pods and take calls walking around, but then the wind picks up. Yeah, this cancellation is good, but not perfect. And it doesn't totally work.

Jay Haynes: 55:44

Yeah. So then, so I'm going to sit outside, you know, all day long. In most the vast majority of time I'm working, I'm going to be outside that is going to be just heavenly. And more human and more human. I'm gonna sit by a mountain lake. You know, the one of the images had the woman sitting in a desert. I thought that was funny. It was like it looked maybe it was a big beach, but it was like tons of sand. I will not be hanging out there. I like forests and mountains and extremes. And so but but your preference, right? What what do you like, or in a city, right, you literally can be sitting in a cafe in Paris, and just people are walking around you, you know, right? All the time. It's, it's crazy to think about. So I think that's going to reconnect people to nature, reconnect them to wanting to take off the vision Pro and hang out with actual humans. And just remember how extraordinary it is to be in three dimensions, we think it's normal to sit there and scroll through Twitter and Tiktok all day. It's just, it's horrible. We have to have to find so I liked.

Jared Ranere: 56:48

I like this idea that like it gets us outside in the first place. Because it it releases us from the tether of our workstation. And because we're out in space, we at some point, we'll take it off, and I'll look at all these people around. Yeah, hopefully my battery's dead.

Jay Haynes: 57:09

Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's, I don't think the implications of it have really reverberated yet with a bunch of the critics. Just in terms of the functional applications, you know, we always call them functional jobs, of course, you know, yeah, you know, whether you're designing something or engineering something, you're architecting something, you're learning something new, etcetera. And, of course, gaming and entertainment are just going to be, you know, really interesting as well, you know, once they're all fully 3d all the time, you know, there isn't even a category yet. I mean, there are some VR games, and you know, you can watch movies in VR. But I just don't think that that's even started to the innovations that are going to happen, they are going to be extraordinary, at least at this level of quality and realism. But so, so I think it's going to be a very, very, very, very successful product. And what I think as well is every VR company now, you know, whether it's Microsoft, HP, Mehta, you know, pi Mac, some of the startups, every single one of them is right now having a product planning, meeting, changing their roadmap, they are they're absolutely changed the road and say, We must do this. We, this is exactly what happened with Android. You know, when they saw the iPhone launch, like we are starting over, we've got to change our entire product roadmap to to now be multi touch in the same way that PCs became Gu eyes, VR, AR, spatial computing, whatever, whatever you want to call it is now going to have to change to adapt to this interface. And the the, the extraordinary I still don't think people have grasped it, it's, it's hard to grasp until you see it. I mean, I've read a lot about it. But the ability to look at any object, a tiny object on your screen, and just tap your fingers together to gesture. It. It's it's an extra. First of all, it's just the technology to do it is extraordinary. It's tracking your eye to see that you're focused on a tiny.on the screen and it's that accurate that you're focused on that that you can just tap that and then move it. I have to say I've

Jared Ranere: 59:24

heard that you don't have to have your hand in a certain place either. You can have it down by your Yeah, it

Jay Haynes: 59:28

doesn't matter that it's pretty incredible people like graphed I try and grasp the thing in three dimensions and then they realize wait, they're just looking at it their hand can just be sitting by them and me I have wrist pain, I have arm pain, I have shoulder pain because I you know I started my first mouseclick was in 1986 and I've just not stopped since then. I mean like literally like I'm in pain from sitting here in this two dimensional space. And there's some great articles written about this too. Of course the mouse enables you to take an object and and use a to demand You're playing to click in another plane, right? And then multi touch enabled us to actually touch the object. As you know, you're using your iPhone or your iPad. But this enables you to experience the object in 3d and of course to then, you know, manipulate it and touch and move it and all that stuff. But it is, it is going to be an extraordinary platform. We're just at the beginning of this. And we haven't really even talked about what, what happens when you combine it with AI. And yeah, that Apple didn't mention that Apple mentioned machine learning. And that was not that was not an accident. They didn't mention AI at all.

Jared Ranere: 1:00:40

Because they didn't mention the metaverse either. Yeah, they didn't mention that about the technical terms. They're just like, you're gonna live your life better, which I love about how their their marketing, they sold a million engineering and design problems, and didn't talk about that they talked about how is this going to improve your life?

Jay Haynes: 1:00:55

Yeah, they did. They did kind of anchor everybody on spatial computing, which is kind of interesting. And I think the the reason they did that is, is a smart one is AI is a technology, but what can it do? For you in the vision Pro is really the question that and of course, right now it's text based. So it wouldn't be that really interesting to say, hey, here's, you know, texts, that you're, you're using chat TBT on a two dimensional text browser. And here you are doing it in, you know, AR XR, spatial computing, whatever. It that's not that compelling. But, but the compelling part of it is, again, helping humans you know, learn, make decisions, gather information, analyze information, to get jobs done, which are going to be done in a three dimensional space. Yeah. And that's where I think there is there is the, the virtual reality part of it, as well as the augmented reality, the augmented reality is, is, you know, just fantastic that they lead with that because we are humans, and we are living in the real world. And the goal is to make your real life better in the real world not to just Yes, extract you into this, you know, crazy, matrix like world that and I couldn't

Jared Ranere: 1:02:13

agree more with that. I feel that the marketing for every other headset is it's bringing a curtain down around you and taking you out of your real life. Like that's what the metaverse feels like to me. And that's the last thing I want to do. I want to enhance my real life. Yeah. And I think Apple did an amazing job of demonstrating that. Yeah.

Jay Haynes: 1:02:30

And that's it's such a good point. Because you don't, you don't want the Mark Zuckerberg meta quest experience, which I don't know if people have seen this, but he there was a big conference, and he had everybody put on a mega quest. So no one's connected. Everybody's sitting there with like, in literally Mark Zuckerberg walking around the only person without this thing on, it looked like he is an evil overlord. You know, enslaving these people. The irony, if everybody remembers the 1984 MAC ad, which is very famous, you know, with a runner, all these people are staring at a screen blindly. And they're just, you know, the runner comes down with a sledgehammer and smashes the big screen and you know, we're not going to 1984 will not be like 94 won't be Big Brother, you'll be liberated. It was a great ad. For the original Mac. He replicated that for meta quest in a bad like, he's the evil overlord, everybody's like in his world, like your vegan. Burger, it was so creepy. Yeah. And this was the exact opposite of that. That is why Apple is so good. And we do know that Phil Schiller has said that Apple's grand unified theory is jobs to be done. They asked what jobs can be done by your Mac, your phone, your watch. And they clearly took that perspective building this. And the other element, just to we can kind of wrap this up here is, I would say the legacy of Steve Jobs is here. Not that Steve Jobs was this lone genius, but that he created this company. And the later Steve Jobs is very different than the early Steve Jobs, where it is a culture of being excruciatingly customer centric. They you could just tell Apple is like no other company right now. I mean, of course, it's the most valuable company in the world for a reason is the collaboration, the teamwork, the number of people who contributed to this, it is extraordinary. It really is the most advanced personal electronic device ever. And the thinking that that went into it, the care, the thoughtfulness of how people are going to use this, how they're going to be real humans in the real world, doing real things, having to get jobs done, having to you know, collaborate and share and work together. It it's so thoughtful, because it is so customer centric, they They've worked out all the technology that goes into it. But first and foremost is a human centric view of what you need to accomplish in your life. What are those goals? And how are you going to get those jobs done? You know, better, faster and more accurately using a new platform? Totally agree. Yeah, great. So there's there's our prediction. Well, I would say, Jared, are you on board with me? That's gonna be the most successful product in history, yes or no?

Jared Ranere: 1:05:30

Yes, I have reservations on how awesome that will be for my life. I'm hoping it turns out well,

Jay Haynes: 1:05:38

yeah, yeah, me too. I'm very hopeful. So thanks for listening. Remember to subscribe and like to this podcast. If you want to learn more about Jobs-to-be-Done innovation methods, visit us@thrv.com